Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

I’m offering winner predictions in all categories for the Oscars as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Documentary Short.

Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Short

I’m offering predictions in all categories for the Oscar nominations as Awards Editor for FilmFactual. Here’s my assessment of Best Documentary Short.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The nominees: Audible, Lead Me Home, The Queen of Basketball, Three Songs for Benazir, When We Were Bullies

Previous winners: Colette, Period. End of Sentence., Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, The White Helmets, A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, The Lady in Number 6 

For your information: This is the first nomination for all filmmakers except for Ben Proudfoot, who was nominated last year for “A Concerto is a Conversation” and returns this year with “The Queen of Basketball.” I had the pleasure to interview all the filmmakers – click on the titles above to watch! “Audible,” “Lead Me Home,” and “Three Songs for Benazir” are all streaming on Netflix, “The Queen of Basketball” is on YouTube, and “When We Were Bullies” premieres on HBO Max on March 30th.

Who should win: These are all good films. I think I might choose “Lead Me Home,” but I would be happy with any of them.
Who will win: I honestly have no idea, but I think I’ll go with The Queen of Basketball.

Oscar Nominees: Best Documentary Short

My predictions: 1/5
The nominees: Audible, Lead Me Home, The Queen of Basketball, Three Songs for Benazir, When We Were Bullies

Apparently watching all fifteen films on the shortlist doesn’t always help. I only predicted one of the nominees, The Queen of Basketball. I severely underestimated three Netflix entries, Three Songs for Benazir, Lead Me Home, and Audible, as well as When We Were Bullies, a retrospective documentary I probably should have seen coming. I’m hoping to have more coverage ahead of the Oscars about each of these. For now, click on the titles of the first four to watch the films!

My current bet to win: I’m betting on When We Were Bullies with “The Queen of Basketball” in second place.

Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Short

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, February 8th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees:: Colette, A Concerto is a Conversation, Do Not Split, Hunger Ward, A Love Song for Latasha

I had the opportunity this year to screen all fifteen shortlisted films in this category. I’ll offer some brief thoughts on the contenders in my predictions, and links to watch if they are publicly available. There is some typically very serious content here. Among the most poignant and difficult to shake are Lynching Postcards: Token of a Great Day (watch on Paramount+), which looks at the horrific tendency to celebrate lynchings as an event to be commemorated, and Day of Rage (watch on YouTube), which investigates the storming of the Capitol last year. Other intriguing exposés include Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis (watch on Netflix), about Nazi scientists brought to Washington after World War II, and Terror Contagion (rentable from Neon), about disturbing weapon and surveillance technology. Takeover (watch on Vimeo), The Queen of Basketball (watch on YouTube), and Coded: The Hidden Love of J. C. Leyendecker (watch on Paramount+) provide potent looks at recent history and those who refused to accept the standards of their eras. Águilas (watch on YouTube) and The Facility (watch on Vimeo) powerfully explore the consequences of repressive immigration policies, while Lead Me Home (watch on Netflix) and A Broken House (watch on YouTube) ponder what having a home really means. Audible (watch on Netflix) and Three Songs for Benazir (watch on Netflix) find people where they are and give them a chance to have their voices heard, and When We Were Bullies revisits the impact of childhood behavior. Sophie and the Baron may well be the outlier as the one solely uplifting film, charting the unexpected friendship between two very different artists.

Predicted nominees: Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis, Day of Rage, The Queen of Basketball, Sophie and the Baron, Takeover

Forecasted winner: I’ll pick A Concerto is a Conversation.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The nominees:
Colette (B+)
A ninety-year-old French woman decides to visit a Nazi concentration camp for the first time in tribute to her brother, a member of the French resistance, who was killed there. The bond she forms with a young student and museum docent is powerful and affecting, and its lessons of resilience continue to be relevant. Watch it now on the Guardian.

A Concerto Is a Conversation (B+)
A musician talks to his grandfather about the many experiences he had in his life that contributed to his love of music and to his need to express what he encountered and went through in an artistic manner. It’s a very sweet and touching film that feels incredibly intimate, a simple conversation between a grandfather and his grandson shared warmly with an audience. Watch it now via The New York Times.

Do Not Split (B+)
In a year filled with news-making protests all around the world, this short focuses on Hong Kong and the rights of protesters to gather and have their voices heard. Its classification of masks as a way to hide one’s identity rather than to protect others due to coronavirus is intriguing in our current moment, but it only adds to the effectiveness of this harrowing and urgent film. Watch it now on Field of Vision.

Hunger Ward (B+)
This spotlight on the humanitarian crisis in Yemen is certainly one of the most difficult and disturbing watches in this category, showing young children who weigh troublingly little. Its portrayal of the brave, hard work of the staff and the somehow-existent optimism of the literally starving patients is a forceful call to action. Watch it now on Pluto TV.

A Love Song for Latasha (B)
This tribute to a Black girl killed at the age of fifteen in 1992, shortly before the Los Angeles riots, is poetic and heartfelt, honoring her memory and challenging the system that could allow a teenager to be killed over a bottle of orange juice. It’s less structured overall than the rest, but still very moving. Watch it now on Netflix.

Previous winners: Period. End of Sentence., Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, The White Helmets, A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, The Lady in Number 6, Inocente
For your information: This is the first Oscar nomination for all filmmakers here except “Hunger Ward” director Skye Fitzgerald, who contended two years ago for his previous short “Lifeboat.” Only “Hunger Ward” was in the running for the Critics Choice Documentary Award prize, where it lost to a nominee in this category last year, “St. Louis Superman.”

Who should win: These are all strong. I think for me the most memorable were “A Concerto is a Conversation” and “Do Not Split.”
Who will win: In general, this category doesn’t always reward positivity, and therefore I think “Hunger Ward” could win, but I’ll choose A Concerto is a Conversation instead.

Oscar Nominees: Best Documentary Short

My predictions: 4/5
The nominees: Colette, A Concerto is a Conversation, Do Not Split, Hunger Ward, A Love Song for Latasha

I did very well here, picking four nominees correctly and having my alternate sub in for the open slot. This is a very good list, ranging from multigenerational relationships to protests to starvation to loss. Anyone reading this should be able to watch all of these films for free: Colette on The Guardian, A Concerto is a Conversation via The New York Times, Do Not Split from Field of Vision, Hunger Ward on Pluto TV, and A Love Song for Latasha on Netflix. I’d also urge you to watch the five films that didn’t make the cut, detailed here.

My current bet to win: I’m going with A Concerto is a Conversation.

Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Short

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, March 15th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in all categories.

Last year’s nominees:: In the Absence, Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl), Life Overtakes Me, St. Louis Superman, Walk Run Cha-Cha

I’m excited to have had the opportunity to watch all ten shortlisted films this year. Below, please find a short summary and review of each as I lead into my predictions:

Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa (B+)
This film looks at an abortion hotline in Pennsylvania where all operators go by Lisa to help those calling in determine what they can afford and the safest way to go about it. It’s a brief showcase of the hard work they do and the legal structure that makes it necessary. While it doesn’t cover much in 13 minutes, what it does show is very worthwhile. Watch it now via Topic on Vimeo.

Call Center Blues (B+)
Another short about a call center is just as much about the people answering the phones as it is the ones who dialed looking for assistance. Immigration is a hot-button issue and this film looks at those who have been deported to Mexico and spend their time helping others thanks to their knowledge of English while continuing in many cases to fight to return to their homes in America. Watch it now via Topic on Vimeo.

Colette (B+)
A ninety-year-old French woman decides to visit a Nazi concentration camp for the first time in tribute to her brother, a member of the French resistance, who was killed there. The bond she forms with a young student and museum docent is powerful and affecting, and its lessons of resilience continue to be relevant. Watch it now on the Guardian.

A Concerto Is a Conversation (B+)
A musician talks to his grandfather about the many experiences he had in his life that contributed to his love of music and to his need to express what he encountered and went through in an artistic manner. It’s a very sweet and touching film that feels incredibly intimate, a simple conversation between a grandfather and his grandson shared warmly with an audience. Watch it now via The New York Times.

Do Not Split (B+)
In a year filled with news-making protests all around the world, this short focuses on Hong Kong and the rights of protesters to gather and have their voices heard. Its classification of masks as a way to hide one’s identity rather than to protect others due to coronavirus is intriguing in our current moment, but it only adds to the effectiveness of this harrowing and urgent film. Watch it now on Field of Vision.

Hunger Ward (B+)
This spotlight on the humanitarian crisis in Yemen is certainly one of the most difficult and disturbing watches in this category, showing young children who weigh troublingly little. Its portrayal of the brave, hard work of the staff and the somehow-existent optimism of the literally starving patients is a forceful call to action. Watch it now on Pluto TV.

Hysterical Girl (B+)
This short reframes Dora, Freud’s only major female patient studied, from a woman’s perspective, collecting an assortment of clips from throughout history and modern times, including sexual assault trials very much in the public eye. Unlike the rest of this slate, it assembles footage to make a point rather than utilize interviews, presenting a fast-paced, entertaining thesis. Watch it now via The New York Times.

A Love Song for Latasha (B)
This tribute to a Black girl killed at the age of fifteen in 1992, shortly before the Los Angeles riots, is poetic and heartfelt, honoring her memory and challenging the system that could allow a teenager to be killed over a bottle of orange juice. It’s less structured overall than the rest, but still very moving. Watch it now on Netflix.

The Speed Cubers (B+)
This film begins as a chronicle of the championship rounds of Rubik’s cube competitions, but then it turns into a wonderful and inspiring portrait of the friendship between a teenage Australian talent and the autistic American who looks up to and respects him. It’s fun to watch them play and even more delightful to see how they interact. Watch it now on Netflix.

What Would Sophia Loren Do? (B-)
I’m not really sure what to make of this film, which begins with a woman who is most definitely not Sophia Loren talking about her obsession with the actress and how their lives have actually been somewhat similar. It’s somewhat interesting but ultimately feels more random than anything else, not quite the same caliber as the rest of these films. Watch it now on Netflix.

Predicted nominees: Colette, A Concerto is a Conversation, Do Not Split, Hunger Ward, The Speed Cubers

Forecasted winner: I’ll pick A Concerto is a Conversation.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The nominees:
In the Absence (A-)
This is documentary filmmaking at its most stirring and authentically disturbing, chronicling the sinking of the Sewol ferry in 2014 in South Korea. It’s upsetting and deeply unnerving to see footage of the passenger boat tilting into the ocean as timestamped recordings of conversations between government officials and coast guard personnel reveal their primary concern of a positive photo op over actually saving lives. It’s devastating and utterly captivating. Watch it on YouTube as part of Field of Vision.

Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) (B+)
Liken this one to the 2010 winner in this category, “Strangers No More,” an unexpectedly positive look at a program called Skateistan that teaches young girls in Afghanistan how to skateboard. Not all is rosy, of course, since the eager athletes explain how they won’t be allowed to leave home once they turn thirteen and bombs land far too close to where they gather for school and practice. This is still a stirring and optimistic look at a forward-thinking initiative that exists within an environment that is rarely encouraging of free thinking. Watch it on A and E.

Life Overtakes Me (B)
Portraits of refugees have been commonplace in past nominees from this category, though this film tackles it from a different vantage point: that of children in Sweden who have become afflicted with resignation syndrome, where they exist in a mostly catatonic state as a result of past sustained trauma. There aren’t many answers in this film and rare opportunities for hope, but it’s definitely an epidemic that is highly peculiar and worthy of being investigated in projects like this one. Watch it on Netflix.

St. Louis Superman (B+)
This is the entry in this category that deals most with American culture through its affecting portrait of Bruce Franks Jr., a 34-year-old activist in Ferguson, Missouri who used his position as state representative to lobby for gun reform. He’s a formidable hero, and this film focuses in on his tireless efforts to change his community – and the country as a whole – for the better. This one isn’t available to stream, but check out this trailer on Vimeo.

Walk Run Cha-Cha (B)
Easily the lightest and happiest of all of these films, this is a picture of late-term love in a very sweet way, spotlighting a couple who fled Vietnam together at a young age and now spend every free moment they have ballroom dancing together. It may not have the dramatic impact of some of the other films in this race, but this one is a sincere crowd-pleaser that feels almost necessary after the depressing nature of the rest of this field. Watch and read about it via the New York Times.

Previous winners: Period. End of Sentence., Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, The White Helmets, A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, The Lady in Number 6, Inocente
For your information: “Life Overtakes Me” co-director Kristine Samuelson was nominated in this category for “Arthur and Lillie” in 1975. “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)” won prizes from BAFTA and the International Documentary Association.

Who should win: “In the Absence” is the strongest of the bunch.
Who will win: This seems like a safe bet for Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl).

Oscar Nominees: Best Documentary Short

My predictions: 3/5
The nominees: In the Absence, Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl), Life Overtakes Me, St. Louis Superman, Walk Run Cha-Cha

I’m very disappointed that the best film on the shortlist, “The Nightcrawlers,” didn’t make the cut here. Fortunately, In the Absence, St. Louis Superman, and Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) did. I shouldn’t be surprised that Life Overtakes Me was included, and I guess there had to be room for something moderately positive like Walk Run Cha-Cha. I’ll analyze the chances for these films in my winner predictions.

My current bet to win: I think this goes to Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl).

Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary Short

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees:: Black Sheep, End Game, Lifeboat, A Night at the Garden, Period. End of Sentence.

I’m excited to have had the opportunity to watch all ten shortlisted films this year. Below, please find a short summary and review of each as I lead into my predictions:

After Maria (B+)
Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico is a subject that will certainly be passionate for many liberal Oscar voters, and this spotlight of several families who are nearing the end of their FEMA-supported stay in housing in the Bronx is definitely an affecting tale that shows how inadequate the government response has been to deal with something that devastated an entire island. Watch it on Netflix.

Fire in Paradise (B+)
This is a film that chronicles an unfortunate, devastating event that seemed harmless at the start and turned into something far more serious: the Camp Fire in Northern California in November 2018. Hearing from firefighters and those affected presents a terrifying picture of events made all the more harrowing by footage of the incredible smoke and fire that engulfed the area. Watch it on Netflix.

Ghosts of Sugar Land (B)
The premise behind this project is definitely fascinating: a group of Muslim friends in Texas grappling with the news that a member of their circle has been radicalized and gone abroad to join ISIS. They try hard to come up with reasons that his enthusiasm about their religion turned into something dangerous and hateful, which is intriguing, but the use of superhero masks to shield each interviewee’s faces detracts from its overall effectiveness. Watch it on Netflix.

In the Absence (A-)
This is documentary filmmaking at its most stirring and authentically disturbing, chronicling the sinking of the Sewol ferry in 2014 in South Korea. It’s upsetting and deeply unnerving to see footage of the passenger boat tilting into the ocean as timestamped recordings of conversations between government officials and coast guard personnel reveal their primary concern of a positive photo op over actually saving lives. It’s devastating and utterly captivating. Watch it on YouTube as part of Field of Vision.

Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) (B+)
Liken this one to the 2010 winner in this category, “Strangers No More,” an unexpectedly positive look at a program called Skateistan that teaches young girls in Afghanistan how to skateboard. Not all is rosy, of course, since the eager athletes explain how they won’t be allowed to leave home once they turn thirteen and bombs land far too close to where they gather for school and practice. This is still a stirring and optimistic look at a forward-thinking initiative that exists within an environment that is rarely encouraging of free thinking. Watch it on A and E.

Life Overtakes Me (B)
Portraits of refugees have been commonplace in past nominees from this category, though this film tackles it from a different vantage point: that of children in Sweden who have become afflicted with resignation syndrome, where they exist in a mostly catatonic state as a result of past sustained trauma. There aren’t many answers in this film and rare opportunities for hope, but it’s definitely an epidemic that is highly peculiar and worthy of being investigated in projects like this one. Watch it on Netflix.

The Nightcrawlers (A-)
If American audiences thinks their president is brash and doesn’t mince words, they have no idea what they’re in for with Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte, who has pledged to eradicate the drug problem in his country. This portrait of journalists who document the extrajudicial vigilantes who hunt down and kill drug dealers and addicts is brutal but unflinching, a vital look at what happens when law and order extends cover to mass murder under the guise of societal cleansing. Watch it on YouTube thanks to National Geographic.

St. Louis Superman (B+)
This is the entry in this category that deals most with American culture through its affecting portrait of Bruce Franks Jr., a 34-year-old activist in Ferguson, Missouri who used his position as state representative to lobby for gun reform. He’s a formidable hero, and this film focuses in on his tireless efforts to change his community – and the country as a whole – for the better. This one isn’t available to stream, but check out this trailer on Vimeo.

Stay Close (B-)
This story of Olympic fencer Keeth Smart and his unlikely journey from Brooklyn to the 2008 Beijing Olympics is the least stirring of all the contenders, weaving a tale of a family dynamic that propelled him to an incredible opportunity. Sports or Olympics fans may find it more interesting than the average viewer. Watch it on PBS.

Walk Run Cha-Cha (B)
Easily the lightest and happiest of all of these films, this is a picture of late-term love in a very sweet way, spotlighting a couple who fled Vietnam together at a young age and now spend every free moment they have ballroom dancing together. It may not have the dramatic impact of some of the other films in this race, but this one is a sincere crowd-pleaser that feels almost necessary after the depressing nature of the rest of this field. Watch and read about it via the New York Times.

From this list, I think that The Nightcrawlers, Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl), and In the Absence are likeliest to show up, and it’s a question of which of the United States-centric films will join them. I give the edge to St. Louis Superman and After Maria over Fire in Paradise, Ghosts of Sugar Land, Walk Run Cha-Cha, and Stay Close. I’m not sure whether Life Overtakes Me will merit a place since it does fit with the typically melancholy nature of this category’s lineup.

Forecasted winner: I’ll pick The Nightcrawlers over “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl).”

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The nominees:
Black Sheep (B)
This intimate and harrowing conversation with Cornelius Walker, a British teenager from a Nigerian family who, at a young age, decided to confront racism from those in the new neighborhood he moved to by trying to fit in with and befriend his tormentors. This is hardly an affirming story of peaceful coexistence, but rather a cautionary tale about the engaging power and infectious nature of hate. Though it runs twenty-six minutes, it feels like there is more to this story that would have been worth including. Watch it for yourself on The Guardian.

End Game (B)
I was already familiar with Zen Hospice Project in San Francisco because my wife works in that field, and it’s certainly affirming to see a representation of a more positive end to life that represents a wide range of options offered to patients without stigmas attached. That said, this film doesn’t have the same emotional power as “Extremis,” a nominee here two years ago, did, presenting its narrative and its highlighted subjects with care but without truly enabling viewers to be with them. Watch it for yourself on Netflix.

Lifeboat (B)
This isn’t the first film to look at the people who try to help migrants hopelessly unprepared for their journeys fleeing persecution via the Mediterranean Sea. “Fire at Sea” and “4.1 Miles” were both nominees two years ago, in the feature and short categories, respectively, and this thirty-four-minute spotlight on the German group Sea-Watch that searches out and rescues North African migrants definitely showcases the dangers of those who attempt to cross the waters and the bravery of those who do everything possible to save them. Though its subject matter is undeniably important, the film doesn’t feel urgent or truly personal. Watch it for yourself on The New Yorker.

A Night at the Garden (B+)
The shortest of all these – clocking in at just seven minutes – is also the most chilling, contained only of archival footage of an American Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden in 1939. It’s evidently meant to evoke images of Trump and nationalism, particularly when a Jewish protester jumps on stage, and it’s effective in that way and in a sheer representation of something that looks and feels distinctly un-American, far too recognizable in today’s society even if the Nazi salute isn’t being proudly flashed in such a public venue in New York City. Watch it for yourself on YouTube.

Period. End of Sentence. (B+)
This film’s clever title is just one indicator of its value. This buoyant trip to India shows how a community that formerly had no access to pads is transformed by the installation of a sanitary pad machine, which also leads to an entirely new workforce and general changing attitude towards and empowerment of women. It’s an energetic and heartfelt look at an unexpected influencer with an enormous impact on a rural village halfway around the world which any viewer, male or female, should be able to find endearing. Watch it for yourself on Netflix.

Previous winners: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, The White Helmets, A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, The Lady in Number 6, Inocente, Saving Face
For your information: “End Game” co-director Rob Epstein has won the feature documentary Oscar twice, for “The Times of Harvey Milk” in 1984 and “Common Threads: Stories from the Quilt” in 1989. “Lifeboat” co-producer Bryn Mooser was previously nominated in this category in 2015 for “Body Team 12.” “A Night at the Garden” director Marshall Curry has two previous nominations in the feature documentary Oscar category, for “Street Fight” in 2005 and “If a Tree Falls” in 2011.

Who should win: These all have worthwhile focuses. While “A Night at the Garden” makes tremendous use of film shot decades ago, “Period. End of Sentence.” is the most well-rounded and strongly-made of the five.
Who will win: While I’ve done terribly in the other short races, I’ve correctly predicted this category for the past five years. Therefore, I’m inclined to endorse Period. End of Sentence. even though all these films are sure to garner votes and could easily win.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The nominees:
Edith + Eddie (B)
This love story about two people with similar names who got married at age 95 and 96 starts out as the sweetest, most endearing tale of unexpected affection discovered later in life but quickly turns sour thanks to the real-life events that tore them apart. Watching Eddie hand Edith her teeth before putting in his own shows how much they care for each other, but Edith’s declining mental health and a disagreement between her daughters over how best to care for her leads to a court-appointed guardian bringing Edith to Florida while Eddie waits at home not knowing when he’ll see her next. This profile of a form of elder abuse spotlights this situation but doesn’t share any answers other than sadness, making it heartbreaking but not quite as influential as perhaps it could have been or might still be. Available on Topic.com.

Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (B)
There’s no denying how incredibly interesting this film is, spotlighting a fifty-six-year-old artist who has struggled with mental illness throughout her life. Beginning with a nod to the title and how a typically agonizing daily occurrence for many provides rare solace for Mindy Alper, who is frequently overwhelmed by overstimulation from other people in places like the supermarket. Her own understanding of her childhood and the relationships with her parents that led her to improve her speech and ability to communicate through her art is truly intriguing, and the actual product she creates is astonishing, especially considering the limitations she describes overcoming and continuing to live with presently. Available on YouTube.

Heroin(e) (B)
This look at Huntington, West Virginia is not an optimistic one, since it boasts a heroin overdose rate ten times the national average. What is cause for celebration is the way in which a number of women in the community seek to change that statistic and help those who suffer, including the fire chief who gets many calls in which she can help save a life and the judge who runs drug court, where she scolds those who have lapsed in their mandated efforts to stay clean and warmly congratulates those who have reached anniversaries and resisted the temptation to fall back into old habits. One resident hears the horrifying numbers of overdoses in the past year and is proud that, for the first time, he isn’t a part of that count. It’s a worthwhile spotlight and an inspiring showcase of what those in this town are trying to do to combat it, even if it’s not an extraordinary film. Available on Netflix.

Knife Skills (B+)
It’s rare to see an affirming story like this one which doesn’t involve much negativity. I had heard about Edwin’s, the French restaurant in Cleveland that employs only people who have been recently released from prison, from one of its founding members, and this energizing film does a great job of sharing its story. The positive outlook doesn’t ignore the reality that many ex-convicts are rearrested within the first year and that even the most committed members of the program aren’t immune to temptations and circumstances that threaten their livelihood. The innovative nature of this particular opportunity for rehabilitation is truly inspiring, and the need to learn how to prepare all twenty-five dishes for this fancy French establishment shows that it’s not just a charity organization but a place where serious cuisine happens. The opening night of the restaurant, which gets its own spotlight, involves lots of excitement and nerves, but also some great-looking food. Quotes like “I would take the rush of what I’m doing now over the rush of getting high any day” show just how successful that program has truly been. Available on iTunes.

Traffic Stop (B+)
This is a documentary built mainly from dash cam footage, showing the stop and arrest of twenty-six-year-old African-American schoolteacher Breaion King in 2016 in Austin. King is profiled as an upstanding member of society who couldn’t believe what was happening to her when a white police officer pulled her over for speeding in a fast food parking lot and then treated her as if she was the guilty perpetrator of some violent crime. Fortunately, this is one situation that didn’t have a deadly outcome, and the footage, which King didn’t know was being recorded, is difficult to dispute. King’s experience is nonetheless harrowing, especially for the speed with which it happened and escalated. King’s honest conversation with a backup officer while she was handcuffed in the back of the car on the way to jail offers a frank and effective analysis of how King views racism in society. Available on HBO.

Previous winners: The White Helmets, A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, The Lady in Number 6, Inocente, Saving Face, Strangers No More

Who should win: Three of these films are worthy nominees but wouldn’t get my vote since they fail to rise above their material to become excellent in their own right. While “Traffic Stop” is captivating in its use of video footage and its stark arguments, my choice is the most positive one that captures its characters’ energy, “Knife Skills.”

Who will win: In some cases, it’s the sunnier film with a warm message that wins over more misery-centered fare, which leads me to think that “Knife Skills” will win. The safer choice is probably Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 or “Edith + Eddie.”

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The competition:
Extremis (B+)
This harrowing, heartbreaking film follows several patients in a hospital who are at the end of their lives. Unable to move and in some cases unable to communicate, the decisions are left to family members, who display incredible strength in their interactions with the doctors who face this kind of thing on a daily basis. It’s very well-done and extremely difficult to watch.

4.1 Miles (B)
This “Op-Doc” from the New York Times, which can be viewed online at their site, actually tackles the same topic as a feature documentary nominee this year, “Fire at Sea.” This take is set on a Greek Island during the European migrant crisis and serves as a more focused, and more upsetting, look at the difficult life of refugees.

Joe’s Violin (B+)
Count this one in as this year’s uplifting pick that still may have audiences reaching for the tissue box. A Holocaust survivor’s donation of the violin that he acquired in Poland at the end of the war turns out to be a wonderful new opportunity for a 12-year-old charter student in the Bronx. This is a heartwarming and deeply affecting about a truly unexpected and sweet connection. Watch it online for yourself!

Watani: My Homeland (B)
One of two movies about Syria, this one takes its central characters out of their native country as they are granted refugee entry into Germany. The juxtaposition of the youngest daughter carrying around a gun in their home in Aleppo and starting a new life, accepted by German children, in a new place, is powerful, and this film has its moments like that.

The White Helmets (A-)
If ever there was a topic that was relevant, it’s this one. At a time when Syrian refugees are no longer being admitted to the United States, this enormously compelling spotlight on those who stay in Syria and volunteer to run back into danger to rescue those who have been hurt any time violence occurs is truly astounding and inspiring.

Previous winners: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, The Lady in Number 6, Inocente, Saving Face, Strangers No More, Music by Prudence, Smile Pinki

Who should win: “Extremis” and “Joe’s Violin” are both effective in their own ways, but I think that “The White Helmets” is on a whole different level.
Who will win: I can’t imagine how this doesn’t go to The White Helmets, but any of these could feasibly win.

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The competition:
Body Team 12 (B)
This 13-minute documentary doesn't get too far into its content, but does offer a decently compelling look at the cleanup operation following the ebola outbreak in Liberia. It doesn't achieve much, but presents a quick look at a country in crisis.

Chau, Beyond the Lines (B)
This heartwarming film spotlights a young artist who, due to the aftereffects of a chemical used by American forces during the Vietnam War, has limited use of his limbs yet yearns to achieve his dream. It's a fine if short and unfinished portrait.

Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah (B+)
This affecting forty-minute film explores the filmmaker behind one of the most acclaimed miniseries of all time, and traces his journey in researching the Holocaust and going far in search of the truth. Lanzmann's own testimony is a particularly strong part of the film as he reflects back on his life and the difficult process of making "Shoah."

A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (B+)
This shocking documentary follows Saba, a young Pakistani woman who survived an honor killing attempted by her father and uncle when she dared to marry someone deemed not good enough. What this film uncovers about her society is horrifying, and it's a thoroughly explored and haunting expose.

Last Day of Freedom (B+)
This is by far the most creative of the nominees in this field, utilizing hand-drawn animation to assist its narrative, which mostly involves one man being interviewed, in a very effective style reminiscent of “Waltz with Bashir.” This stirring tale of a war hero sent to death row is a contemplative, affecting exploration of a truly broken system.

Previous winners: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, The Lady in Number 6, Inocente, Saving Face, Strangers No More, Music by Prudence, Smile Pinki, Freeheld, The Blood of Yingzhou District

Who should win: I think I would choose “A Girl in the River,” but I would be happy with “Last Day of Freedom” or “Claude Lanzmann” too. These are all pretty good.
Who will win: I think A Girl in the River has the best shot, but this race is wide open.

Oscar Nominees: Short Films

I’ve been predicting these categories for a few years now knowing little to nothing about them, and this year I scored 8/15. I’ve had the chance to screen all of the nominees the past few years, and I hope to do the same this year. All I’ve seen is “Sanjay’s Super Team,” which managed to get a nomination even though the much better feature it played before, “The Good Dinosaur,” didn’t, so I’ll wait to offer commentary until them. All images below are from Oscar.com.

Best Documentary Short Film

My predictions: 2/5
The nominees: Body Team 12, Chau Beyond the Lines, Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah, A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness, Last Day of Freedom
The frontrunner: TBD

Best Live Action Short Film

My predictions: 3/5
The nominees: Ave Maria, Day One, Everything Will Be Okay, Shok, Stutterer
The frontrunner: TBD

Best Animated Short Film

My predictions: 3/5
The nominees: Bear Story, Prologue, Sanjay’s Super Team, We Can’t Live Without Cosmos, World of Tomorrow
The frontrunner: TBD

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The nominees:
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (B)
This short, the longest in this category at 45 minutes, is an informative look at the country’s only veteran call center in which responders handle calls from those struggling with PTSD and contemplating suicide. It offers an effective and harrowing look at the difficult and important work done by the people who answer the phone.
Joanna (C-)
This film follows a Polish woman suffering from a chronic fatal illness as she spends the little time she has left with her family. It may be insensitive to rate it so poorly, but there is no introduction of any kind and the film presents its conversation without any framing, making for a depressing but far from fulfilling experience.
Our Curse (B)
This one takes the cake for heart-wrenching, spotlighting two parents who bring their infant son home from the hospital and discuss the implications of the disorder he suffers from that requires him to be constantly hooked up to a respirator. Watching these parents see their child in such agony is immensely hard to watch.
The Reaper (D+)
I’m not really sure why this was made into a film. The story of a Mexican slaughterhouse employee nicknamed “The Reaper” doesn’t have much to offer other than the obviously off-putting nature of the work he does. What makes that film-worthy? Nothing.
White Earth (C-)
I’ve always wanted to go to North Dakota just to see it, and this documentary has almost completely negated that desire (I’ll still go at some point, probably to Fargo). Hearing about oil field workers and their neglected children just doesn’t cut it in terms of seeming relevant or interesting.

Previous winners: The Lady in Number 6, Inocente, Saving Face, Strangers No More, Music by Prudence, Smile Pinki, Freeheld, The Blood of Yingzhou District
Who should win: I was not at all impressed with this field. I would pick “Crisis Hotline” over “Our Curse” and really hope the rest don’t win.
Who will win: I think that Crisis Hotline has the edge over “Our Curse,” which I think voters will find too difficult to get through.

Oscar Nominees: Short Films

I’ve been predicting these categories for a few years now knowing little to nothing about them, and this year I scored 9/15. I’ve had the chance to screen all of the nominees the past few years, and I hope to do the same this year. Since I’ve only seen one of the animated shorts at this point (“Feast” played before “Big Hero 6”) and nothing else, I’ll wait to offer commentary until them. All images below are from Oscar.com.

Best Documentary Short Film

My predictions: 3/5
The nominees: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, Joanna, Our Curse, The Reaper, White Earth
The frontrunner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Best Live Action Short Film

My predictions: 4/5
The nominees: Aya, Boogaloo and Graham, Butter Lamp, Parvaneh, The Phone Call
The frontrunner: The Phone Call

Best Animated Short Film

My predictions: 2/5
The nominees: The Bigger Picture, The Dam Keeper, Feast, Me and My Moulton, A Single Life
The frontrunner: Me and My Moulton

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The nominees:
CaveDigger (B)
This hands-on portrait of a man who, you guessed it, digs caves, is intriguing but lacks a certain dramatic potency. Its central character is a lively figure, one who is immensely watchable and whose life’s work is hardly conventional.
Facing Fear (B)
This jarring look at how one a former neo-Nazi who nearly beat a gay man to death now shares the stage with him at the Museum of Tolerance to educate others on harmony and forgiveness is involving but somewhat fleeting.
Karama Has No Walls (B+)
This harrowing look at violent conflict that emerged from a peaceful protest in Yemen is a visceral, haunting showcase of modern-day journalism at work in the field, a fitting companion piece to feature Best Documentary nominee “The Square” this year.
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (B+)
It’s hard not to find this film about a 109-year-old Holocaust survivor (who sadly passed away earlier this week) who looks and acts at two decades younger and plays the piano every day charming. It manages to find great light and positivity where many might see only darkness.
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall (B)
The subject of prison hospice and elderly convicts set to be incarcerated until their deaths is a potent and oft-ignored one, and this documentary dives deep into the life of one such man. It’s a brutal but eye-opening film that charts a brave course.

Previous winners: Inocente, Saving Face, Strangers No More, Music by Prudence, Smile Pinki, Freeheld, The Blood of Yingzhou District
Who should win: I would definitely choose “The Lady in Number 6.”
Who will win: Sometimes, the darkest film in this category wins, while other times it’s the one that’s actually happy. My bet is that the latter wins out this year, and that The Lady in Number 6 can eclipse “Karama Has No Walls.”

Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The competition: Inocente, Kings Point, Mondays at Racine, Open Heart, Redemption

Previous winners: Saving Face, Strangers No More, Music by Prudence, Smile Pinki, Freeheld, The Blood of Yingzhou District, A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin
Who should win: I didn’t have a chance to see any of these this year, unfortunately, so I’m going in blind.
Who will win: Based purely on synopses, I’m betting on Inocente.